Wednesday, November 5, 2008

My Predictions

Thus far I have been wrong with one prediction and that was the Congressional 11 race. Perhaps I let my cynicism talk too much there.

My prediction for North Carolina is looking good, it has yet to be called but Obama leads.

The Oregon senate race is yet to be called but Merkley is ahead and heavy Democratic districts are what is left to be counted.

Alaska has yet to be called, but convicted felon Ted Stevens is leading.

We have a recount in Minnesota which may not be called until December at the latest.

And we have a runoff in Georgia for senate.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008


I showed up at the polls around 6:50 this morning. I was the eight person in line. I looked behind my and there were around 15 people waiting this morning.

It went smoothly for myself and it seemed to have gone smoothly for everyone else once the doors opened.

I voted for Barack Obama for President.

Now comes the waiting game.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Election Night Predictions

With only 5 days to go until the election I have decided to make my predictions now.

Pennsylvania District 10- Carney vs. Hackett

I believe that this will be called very early on. Chris Carney will defeat Chris Hackett by at the very minimum 9 points. Hackett is down in polling and he has not really gotten anywhere. There are still many Mesuer folks who won't back Hackett due to the bitter primary fight.

Predicted Winner: Chris Carney (D)

Pennslyvania District 11- Kanjorski vs. Barletta

Early on I was considering voting for Lou Barletta because I frankly do not like Paul Kanjorski. However; Barletta failed to rise above being a one issue candidate. I know there will be people who disagree with me on this, but that's my opinion of him. I don't believe he is a bad guy. I just believe he needs to not hammer that one issue. I actually, to a degree, agree with him. We need stricter crackdowns on illegal immigration. Penalising businesses that use illegal labor is a great way to start. But I digress. I believe that Barletta will win by a slim margin within 3-5 points. I do believe that Kanjorski has a chance, but it will be very slim if Kanjo wins. In that scenario it will be in the margin if 2-3%. No matter what this race is getting called later. I believe this is the last race of Kanjorski's career. He will either lose the general election or he will lose the next primary.

Predicted Winner: Lou Barletta (R)

Electoral Vote: Pennsylvania- Barack Obama vs. John McCain

I believe that it will take about 90 minutes for the state of Pennsylvania to be decided after our polls close. Turnout will be tremendous in our state particullary in the Pittsburg and Philadelphia areas. I don't believe that John McCain will be able to pull an upset win in Pennsylvania. I do not want to come off as overconfident or cocky, but based off my analysis of the election in our state and state polling, I believe it is safe to say that Barack Obama will carry Pennsylvania with a margin of at least 4%.

Predicted Winner: Barack Obama (D)

General Election: Barack Obama vs John McCain

The election will be called by 12 am. At the earliest, and I don't see it this happening, it will be called at 11 PM. The winner will be Barack Obama. It may be possible for John McCain to pull an upset, but I do not see this occur. Barack will win the popular vote by at least 3%. His margin in the electoral college will be great. Barack Obama will win all of the Kerry states, no doubt. I believe Barack Obama willd definitly win the following states.

Virginia-13 electoral votes
Colordao- 9 electoral votes
New Mexico- 5 electoral votes
Iowa- 7 electoral votes
Nevada- 5 electoral votes
North Carolina- 15 electoral votes
Florida- 27 electoral votes
Ohio- 20 electoral votes

That would give him a total of 353 electoral vote to 185.

I believe that Barack has the chance at pulling upsets in Georgia, Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, Indiana, West Virginia, and Missouri

My prediction is based off of current electoral and national polling. In addition I am basing my prediction off of analysis of what is being reported about early voting. In the key states such as Colorado and Florida, the early voting turnout is seemingly positive for the Democrats.

We will see the largest number of voters turnout in American history. That is without a doubt.

Predicted Winner: Barack Obama (D)

The Senate

I am going to do a brief rundown for my predictions of the Senate races. I will only include the toss-up seats and open seats. Those candidate who are crusing to re-election are not gonna be counted.

Virginia: Marker Warner (D) will win
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) will unseat Liddy Dole (R)
New Hampshire: Jean Shaheen (D) will unseat John Sununu (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) will unseat Gordon Smith (R)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) will unseat Norm Coleman (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) will unseat Ted Stevens (R)
Mississippi: Roger Wicker (R) will defeat challenger Ronnie Musgrove (D)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) will barely defeat challenger Bruce Lunsford (D)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) will defeat Bob Schaffer (R)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) will defeat Steve Pearce (R)

The great upset of the night will be Jim Martin (D) defeating the despicable Saxby Chambliss (R) in Georgia

The Democrats will achieve the fillibuster proof majority.

They will have exactly 60 Senators.

That's How I See It

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Another Conspiracy Theory Bites the Dust

U.S. District Judge R. Barclay Surrick on Friday night rejected the suit by attorney Philip J. Berg, who alleged that Obama was not a U.S. citizen and therefore ineligible for the presidency.

This was one of the many conspiracy theories that have been circulating about Barack Obama. Thankfully the judge had the reason to see that this claim was nothing more than complete horseshit.

Berg claimed that Obama is either a citizen of his father's native Kenya or became a citizen of Indonesia after he moved there as a boy.

Obviously this had as much backing as the BS claims that Obama is a Muslim and the only dark and seedy lies that the Right Wing have been spreading.

With regards to the Muslim rumor, and Colin Powell said it well, so what if he was a Muslim? What would that matter? How would it be any different than him being a Jew, a Buddhist, etc. The vicious lies that Obama is a Muslim amount nothing more to racism. It is fear-mongering on part of the Right Wing. Since the Far Right's agenda has little to no appeal to Americans now, they have to resort to more lies and deciet than usual to scare Americans.

The Right Wing thinks you're dumb.

Don't let them fool you.

That's How I See It.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

This Is Just Absurd

Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin on Wednesday rejected the idea that she has launched negative attacks against Barack Obama.

Oh really?

Associating him with terrorists isn't a negative attack? Slamming his views on abortion isn't a negative attack?

She is quite honestly full of it. The McCain/Palin campaign has been disgustingly negative.

And you know why?

Because short of vile hatred and deceit they have nothing to offer the American people. They realize they cannot win this election based off of the economy. So they go for the negativity and the mud slinging.

They obviously are so cynical that they believe that Americans will fall for this.

Guess what.

They are not.

Palin and McCain have tried the Ayers attack and it is not working.

Know why?

Because the issue of Obama's relationship with Bill Ayers will not fix the economy. It will not end he Iraq war. It will not help the millions of Americans who are hurt by this economy are not going to be helped.

From a CNN Poll:

Obama's connection to William Ayers matters to you...

Great Deal 23
Somewhat 14
Not Much 11
Not At All 51

That 23% is also about the same number of who President Bush is still doing a good job.

Go figure!!!

That's How I See It!

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Very Clever Video

This political ad from is very clever and funny!

Friday, October 10, 2008

McCain Volunteers Vandalize My Bumper Sticker

Yesterday a volunteer from the McCain campaign wrecked my Obama '08 bumper sticker on my car.

There was at least one McCain volunteer in our neighborhood yesterday around noon. My mother had just gotten home from work around 12:30. She came in, furiously, and said "Go look what they did to your car, because this better be a joke."

That's what I found. My bumper sticker was half way torn off and a McCain/Palin pamphlet was placed under it. This person actually went about 5-10 feet into my yard to do this crap.

I went around my block and bumper stickers were placed on all of my neighbor's porches. Including my own.

My father and I drove around the area looking for the guy, I asked around and the folks in the neighborhood who saw him say that he was around in a ten minute time span.

No luck so we did go to the Police. They couldn't really do much since we had no ID on the person who did this. But the officer we spoke to told us to call 9/11 if we see another trespasser like this on our property. We will and I am keeping my eye out.

I went to the Luzerne County Republican Headquarters on the Square to voice my complaint. They were nice, but tried to convince me that it must have been some prankster in my neighborhood. That is bull. I know and understand that the McCain campaign itself does not condone such actions, but this could not have been anyone else but an individual with immediate access to those pamphlets. Not a pamphlet was missing from a home on my street or immediate area.

Whoever did this was a McCain volunteer with those pamphlets.

I did get a replacement for my bumpersticker.

But these actions do not speak positively at all. The actions of this individual does represent the McCain campaign.

We all know what a fit there would be if an Obama volunteer had done this.