Thursday, October 30, 2008

Election Night Predictions

With only 5 days to go until the election I have decided to make my predictions now.

Pennsylvania District 10- Carney vs. Hackett

I believe that this will be called very early on. Chris Carney will defeat Chris Hackett by at the very minimum 9 points. Hackett is down in polling and he has not really gotten anywhere. There are still many Mesuer folks who won't back Hackett due to the bitter primary fight.

Predicted Winner: Chris Carney (D)

Pennslyvania District 11- Kanjorski vs. Barletta

Early on I was considering voting for Lou Barletta because I frankly do not like Paul Kanjorski. However; Barletta failed to rise above being a one issue candidate. I know there will be people who disagree with me on this, but that's my opinion of him. I don't believe he is a bad guy. I just believe he needs to not hammer that one issue. I actually, to a degree, agree with him. We need stricter crackdowns on illegal immigration. Penalising businesses that use illegal labor is a great way to start. But I digress. I believe that Barletta will win by a slim margin within 3-5 points. I do believe that Kanjorski has a chance, but it will be very slim if Kanjo wins. In that scenario it will be in the margin if 2-3%. No matter what this race is getting called later. I believe this is the last race of Kanjorski's career. He will either lose the general election or he will lose the next primary.

Predicted Winner: Lou Barletta (R)

Electoral Vote: Pennsylvania- Barack Obama vs. John McCain

I believe that it will take about 90 minutes for the state of Pennsylvania to be decided after our polls close. Turnout will be tremendous in our state particullary in the Pittsburg and Philadelphia areas. I don't believe that John McCain will be able to pull an upset win in Pennsylvania. I do not want to come off as overconfident or cocky, but based off my analysis of the election in our state and state polling, I believe it is safe to say that Barack Obama will carry Pennsylvania with a margin of at least 4%.

Predicted Winner: Barack Obama (D)

General Election: Barack Obama vs John McCain

The election will be called by 12 am. At the earliest, and I don't see it this happening, it will be called at 11 PM. The winner will be Barack Obama. It may be possible for John McCain to pull an upset, but I do not see this occur. Barack will win the popular vote by at least 3%. His margin in the electoral college will be great. Barack Obama will win all of the Kerry states, no doubt. I believe Barack Obama willd definitly win the following states.

Virginia-13 electoral votes
Colordao- 9 electoral votes
New Mexico- 5 electoral votes
Iowa- 7 electoral votes
Nevada- 5 electoral votes
North Carolina- 15 electoral votes
Florida- 27 electoral votes
Ohio- 20 electoral votes

That would give him a total of 353 electoral vote to 185.

I believe that Barack has the chance at pulling upsets in Georgia, Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, Indiana, West Virginia, and Missouri

My prediction is based off of current electoral and national polling. In addition I am basing my prediction off of analysis of what is being reported about early voting. In the key states such as Colorado and Florida, the early voting turnout is seemingly positive for the Democrats.

We will see the largest number of voters turnout in American history. That is without a doubt.

Predicted Winner: Barack Obama (D)

The Senate

I am going to do a brief rundown for my predictions of the Senate races. I will only include the toss-up seats and open seats. Those candidate who are crusing to re-election are not gonna be counted.

Virginia: Marker Warner (D) will win
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) will unseat Liddy Dole (R)
New Hampshire: Jean Shaheen (D) will unseat John Sununu (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) will unseat Gordon Smith (R)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) will unseat Norm Coleman (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) will unseat Ted Stevens (R)
Mississippi: Roger Wicker (R) will defeat challenger Ronnie Musgrove (D)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) will barely defeat challenger Bruce Lunsford (D)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) will defeat Bob Schaffer (R)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) will defeat Steve Pearce (R)

The great upset of the night will be Jim Martin (D) defeating the despicable Saxby Chambliss (R) in Georgia

The Democrats will achieve the fillibuster proof majority.

They will have exactly 60 Senators.

That's How I See It

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