My Predictions

Thus far I have been wrong with one prediction and that was the Congressional 11 race. Perhaps I let my cynicism talk too much there.

My prediction for North Carolina is looking good, it has yet to be called but Obama leads.

The Oregon senate race is yet to be called but Merkley is ahead and heavy Democratic districts are what is left to be counted.

Alaska has yet to be called, but convicted felon Ted Stevens is leading.

We have a recount in Minnesota which may not be called until December at the latest.

And we have a runoff in Georgia for senate.

Voted

I showed up at the polls around 6:50 this morning. I was the eight person in line. I looked behind my and there were around 15 people waiting this morning.

It went smoothly for myself and it seemed to have gone smoothly for everyone else once the doors opened.

I voted for Barack Obama for President.

Now comes the waiting game.

Election Night Predictions

With only 5 days to go until the election I have decided to make my predictions now.

Pennsylvania District 10- Carney vs. Hackett

I believe that this will be called very early on. Chris Carney will defeat Chris Hackett by at the very minimum 9 points. Hackett is down in polling and he has not really gotten anywhere. There are still many Mesuer folks who won't back Hackett due to the bitter primary fight.

Predicted Winner: Chris Carney (D)

Pennslyvania District 11- Kanjorski vs. Barletta


Early on I was considering voting for Lou Barletta because I frankly do not like Paul Kanjorski. However; Barletta failed to rise above being a one issue candidate. I know there will be people who disagree with me on this, but that's my opinion of him. I don't believe he is a bad guy. I just believe he needs to not hammer that one issue. I actually, to a degree, agree with him. We need stricter crackdowns on illegal immigration. Penalising businesses that use illegal labor is a great way to start. But I digress. I believe that Barletta will win by a slim margin within 3-5 points. I do believe that Kanjorski has a chance, but it will be very slim if Kanjo wins. In that scenario it will be in the margin if 2-3%. No matter what this race is getting called later. I believe this is the last race of Kanjorski's career. He will either lose the general election or he will lose the next primary.

Predicted Winner: Lou Barletta (R)

Electoral Vote: Pennsylvania- Barack Obama vs. John McCain

I believe that it will take about 90 minutes for the state of Pennsylvania to be decided after our polls close. Turnout will be tremendous in our state particullary in the Pittsburg and Philadelphia areas. I don't believe that John McCain will be able to pull an upset win in Pennsylvania. I do not want to come off as overconfident or cocky, but based off my analysis of the election in our state and state polling, I believe it is safe to say that Barack Obama will carry Pennsylvania with a margin of at least 4%.

Predicted Winner: Barack Obama (D)

General Election: Barack Obama vs John McCain

The election will be called by 12 am. At the earliest, and I don't see it this happening, it will be called at 11 PM. The winner will be Barack Obama. It may be possible for John McCain to pull an upset, but I do not see this occur. Barack will win the popular vote by at least 3%. His margin in the electoral college will be great. Barack Obama will win all of the Kerry states, no doubt. I believe Barack Obama willd definitly win the following states.

Virginia-13 electoral votes
Colordao- 9 electoral votes
New Mexico- 5 electoral votes
Iowa- 7 electoral votes
Nevada- 5 electoral votes
North Carolina- 15 electoral votes
Florida- 27 electoral votes
Ohio- 20 electoral votes

That would give him a total of 353 electoral vote to 185.

I believe that Barack has the chance at pulling upsets in Georgia, Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, Indiana, West Virginia, and Missouri

My prediction is based off of current electoral and national polling. In addition I am basing my prediction off of analysis of what is being reported about early voting. In the key states such as Colorado and Florida, the early voting turnout is seemingly positive for the Democrats.

We will see the largest number of voters turnout in American history. That is without a doubt.

Predicted Winner: Barack Obama (D)

The Senate

I am going to do a brief rundown for my predictions of the Senate races. I will only include the toss-up seats and open seats. Those candidate who are crusing to re-election are not gonna be counted.

Virginia: Marker Warner (D) will win
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) will unseat Liddy Dole (R)
New Hampshire: Jean Shaheen (D) will unseat John Sununu (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) will unseat Gordon Smith (R)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) will unseat Norm Coleman (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) will unseat Ted Stevens (R)
Mississippi: Roger Wicker (R) will defeat challenger Ronnie Musgrove (D)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) will barely defeat challenger Bruce Lunsford (D)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) will defeat Bob Schaffer (R)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) will defeat Steve Pearce (R)

The great upset of the night will be Jim Martin (D) defeating the despicable Saxby Chambliss (R) in Georgia

The Democrats will achieve the fillibuster proof majority.

They will have exactly 60 Senators.

That's How I See It

Another Conspiracy Theory Bites the Dust

U.S. District Judge R. Barclay Surrick on Friday night rejected the suit by attorney Philip J. Berg, who alleged that Obama was not a U.S. citizen and therefore ineligible for the presidency.


This was one of the many conspiracy theories that have been circulating about Barack Obama. Thankfully the judge had the reason to see that this claim was nothing more than complete horseshit.

Berg claimed that Obama is either a citizen of his father's native Kenya or became a citizen of Indonesia after he moved there as a boy.

Obviously this had as much backing as the BS claims that Obama is a Muslim and the only dark and seedy lies that the Right Wing have been spreading.

With regards to the Muslim rumor, and Colin Powell said it well, so what if he was a Muslim? What would that matter? How would it be any different than him being a Jew, a Buddhist, etc. The vicious lies that Obama is a Muslim amount nothing more to racism. It is fear-mongering on part of the Right Wing. Since the Far Right's agenda has little to no appeal to Americans now, they have to resort to more lies and deciet than usual to scare Americans.

The Right Wing thinks you're dumb.

Don't let them fool you.

That's How I See It.

This Is Just Absurd

Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin on Wednesday rejected the idea that she has launched negative attacks against Barack Obama.

Oh really?

Associating him with terrorists isn't a negative attack? Slamming his views on abortion isn't a negative attack?

She is quite honestly full of it. The McCain/Palin campaign has been disgustingly negative.

And you know why?

Because short of vile hatred and deceit they have nothing to offer the American people. They realize they cannot win this election based off of the economy. So they go for the negativity and the mud slinging.

They obviously are so cynical that they believe that Americans will fall for this.

Guess what.

They are not.

Palin and McCain have tried the Ayers attack and it is not working.

Know why?

Because the issue of Obama's relationship with Bill Ayers will not fix the economy. It will not end he Iraq war. It will not help the millions of Americans who are hurt by this economy are not going to be helped.

From a CNN Poll:

Obama's connection to William Ayers matters to you...

Great Deal 23
Somewhat 14
Not Much 11
Not At All 51

That 23% is also about the same number of who President Bush is still doing a good job.

Go figure!!!

That's How I See It!

Very Clever Video

This political ad from MoveOn.org is very clever and funny!

McCain Volunteers Vandalize My Bumper Sticker

Yesterday a volunteer from the McCain campaign wrecked my Obama '08 bumper sticker on my car.

There was at least one McCain volunteer in our neighborhood yesterday around noon. My mother had just gotten home from work around 12:30. She came in, furiously, and said "Go look what they did to your car, because this better be a joke."


That's what I found. My bumper sticker was half way torn off and a McCain/Palin pamphlet was placed under it. This person actually went about 5-10 feet into my yard to do this crap.

I went around my block and bumper stickers were placed on all of my neighbor's porches. Including my own.

My father and I drove around the area looking for the guy, I asked around and the folks in the neighborhood who saw him say that he was around in a ten minute time span.

No luck so we did go to the Police. They couldn't really do much since we had no ID on the person who did this. But the officer we spoke to told us to call 9/11 if we see another trespasser like this on our property. We will and I am keeping my eye out.

I went to the Luzerne County Republican Headquarters on the Square to voice my complaint. They were nice, but tried to convince me that it must have been some prankster in my neighborhood. That is bull. I know and understand that the McCain campaign itself does not condone such actions, but this could not have been anyone else but an individual with immediate access to those pamphlets. Not a pamphlet was missing from a home on my street or immediate area.

Whoever did this was a McCain volunteer with those pamphlets.

I did get a replacement for my bumpersticker.

But these actions do not speak positively at all. The actions of this individual does represent the McCain campaign.

We all know what a fit there would be if an Obama volunteer had done this.

Stay Classy John McCain...

This moment totally and utterly disgusted me. John McCain has no respect or class.

OJ Found Guilty

O.J. Simpson was found guilty of armed robbery and kidnapping here late Friday, 13 years to the day after the American football legend was acquitted of murdering his ex-wife and her friend.

He faces 15 years up to life in prison.

Like a good number of people I do believe that he got away with murder. At least now he will not be a free man.

I remember thirteen years ago when he was acquitted. I was six years old. It was my birthday. I remember playing with a Matchbox car set that my parents gave me for my birthday. My mom was watching the trial on TV. I still remember when they came out and acquitted him. I still recall how upset my mother was. She immediately got on the phone with either my dad or my grandmother and was talking about how wrong this all was.

And just a few hours ago when we all found out that he was found guilty on multiple charges of kidnapping and armed robbery, we all breathed a sigh of relief.

VP Debate

Tonight at nine PM is the Vice-Presidential debate. Based off of Palin's embarrassing interviews with Katie Couric I cannot help but speculate that Palin will perform poorly. She is clearly out of her league.

Now there is this big hullabaloo over Gwen Ifill's book. It is a pro-Obama book, but it is generally about modern black politicians in general. The book is expected to be released in early 2009. The earliest results for info on this book based off of internet searches has been in July.

I am just shocked, but not surprised, that the right-wing is having a hissy-fit now over this. They had to have known. Of course they try and raise this issue only about twenty four hours before the debate. Deep down they know Palin will embarass herself and the Republican ticket.

My question is, what can Gwen Ifill possibly do to impede the debate? Not allow Palin to answer? She is going to be asking both Biden and Palin the same questions. Gwen Ifill's credibility should not be questioned in this instance. Like I said seeing that information on this book has been avaible has been out since July I find it hard to believe that the McCain campaign didn't come across this. Then again just look at the great job they did in vetting Palin.

This is the latest embarassing take from Palin's interviews with Katie Couric.



Someone as conservative as she is should be able to name one of the many Supreme Court cases that deal with seperation of church and state. Especially the ones that deal with the unconstitionatlity of school prayer.

I can certainly name one Supreme Court that I disagree with.

Gore v. Bush!

Paul Newman 1925-2008

Legendary actor Paul Newman died of lung cancer at his home at the age of 83. In the summer it was reported that his health was failing and in June it was widely reported that he had been suffering from lung cancer.

He was nominated 9 times for Best Leading Actor or Best Supporting Actor at the Academy Awards. He won in 1987 for Best Actor in a Leading Role in the film The Color of Money.

Joe Biden Coming To Wilkes-Barre

Joe Biden will be in Wilkes-Barre Thursday.

Info:

Nesbitt Park
180 Market Street
Wilkes-Barre, PA

Thursday, September 25th
Doors Open: 1:00 p.m.
Program Begins: 2:30 p.m.

"Democratic Vice-Presidential candidate Joe Biden will be holding a Community Gathering this Thursday, September 25 at Nesbitt Park in Wilkes-Barre. Doors open at 1:00 PM, and the park is located in Wilkes-Barre on the west bank of the Susquehanna River at the foot of the Market Street Bridge. Tickets will be distributed on a first come, first serve basis and can be picked up at 211 S. Main Street (Melone Architects) from 1:00 PM-9:00 PM on Tuesday and from 9:00 AM-9:00 PM on Wednesday. However, those without tickets will also be admitted as space permits so feel free to bring along any friends or family members even if they don't have tickets."

Obama in Duryea

http://www.cspan.org/

If you scroll down to the Recent Program section there is a link to watch the video of Barack's speech in Duryea. It was a private event. People in attendance where volunteers, elected officials, and plant workers. I lead the Pledge of Allegiance for the event and sat in the front row to the left side. At the very end of the video you can see me when Barack comes over to shake our hands. I'm wearing a yellow dress shirt and at the end I face towards the camera because I am talking to the gentleman next to me. It was a fantastic speech and I felt he did well.

It is something else to standing next to someone like Barack Obama who can be the next president and especially to have shook his hand twice.

On the personal side I apologize for the lack of attention to my blog and the others. Don't worry will try to comment and post as much as I can. College is going very well, but it is also very demanding. I haven't had the time to update as regularly as I would like. I will do my best to have at least one new update for the week. Ideally every few days. I hope everyone else is doing well.

Palin For VP- Sexist, Hypocrtical, and Wrong

Republicans have been attacking Barack Obama for being inexperienced. They have stated that Obama has not had the experienced needed to be president. That is why they argue that McCain is the far better choice. He has been in politics for a long time.

But he picks Sarah Palin today for Vice-President.

Sarah Palin, the governor of Alaska.

Sarah Palin who has virtually no political experience.

She served on city council for two terms in Wasilla and she was later mayor. The town's population, depending on what news service you prefer places the population between 5,000 and 9,000 people.

This guy I know, who has been a Republican for a long time and who has been utterly and soundly convinced that Barack Obama cannot win told me this yesterday upon the announcement.

"You just won this election," he said. He was extremely angry at McCain and disappointed. Later that night as we talked politics he was doing his best to accept Sarah Palin as VP.

Sarah Palin who, if elected alongside John McCain, would be a heartbeat away from the presidency.

McCain has been attacking Obama on Iraq endlessly. McCain has been championing himself as the politician who knows what is right for the conflict. Yet he picks a Vice-President who a year ago had this to say about Iraq.

"I've been so focused on state government, I haven't really focused much on the war in Iraq," she said.

John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin is clearly sexist and politically transparent. He only selected her to appeal to women. Mainly to appeal to the PUMA's (Who I contend are not real Democrats anyway, they are put sore losers and they act like pathetic children) and disgruntled Hillary supporters. Anyone who supported Hillary who votes for McCain because of Palin is directly insulting Hillary Clinton and feminism. Sarah Palin is a great candidate for McCain based on conservative issues. She is a creationist and is strongly opposed to abortion. Hillary would shudder if this woman was a heartbeat away from the presidency.

The selection is sexist because John McCain is using Sarah Palin's being a woman to get votes. He is using her gender for a political purpose. If that is not sexist then I don't know what is. He is clearly exploiting her for political gain.

Palin is also facing an ethics investigation.

It is a scandal..."involving the firing of a state police chief and his reluctance to fire an Alaska state trooper, Palin's former brother-in-law who has been involved in a bitter custody fight with her younger sister."

Let's just look at it one last time. The GOP cannot attack Obama for being inexperienced anymore. Obama has served longer in government on a statewide and national scale than Palin. She is also younger than Obama by 3 years. There goes the age argument as well. And if need be Obama's Vice-President nom Joe Biden would be able to lead us if something happens to Obama. I highly doubt that Palin has the ability to lead the country. I have confidence that Biden can take over the office and execute it well.

I do not see this helping McCain in the long run. He already had the PUMA's and the so-called Democrats who would back a warmonger, an anti-feminist, anti-gay, anti-working class candidate such as John McCain. He already had these people.

That's how I see it.

One of the Best Speeches From Last Night

I may be a little biased with this, but I felt Rep. Dennis Kucinich gave one of the best speeches last night at the DNC. Enjoy. He probably had all this energy built up for the past few months!

Joe Biden Confirmed?

All major news media is reporting now at 12:47 AM that Joe Biden has been asked by Sen. Obama to be his running mate and has accepted.

The official announcement is expected to come via text message around 7 am or 8 am in the morning.

Obama and the vice-president nominee will be at a rally tomorrow in Chicago, Illinois where Obama kicked off his presidential campaign.

Obama/Biden?

We shall see tomorrow morning.

But for right now, it seems Biden is the pick.

How Many Houses Do YOU Own?

John McCain has made his latest gaffe.

He was unsure of how many homes he had. How many homes do YOU own?


"I think — I'll have my staff get to you," McCain told Politico in Las Cruces, N.M. "It's condominiums where — I'll have them get to you."

According to his staff the McCains owns at least four homes. They are located in Arizona, California, and Virginia.

Truth is that he actually owns seven.

Who is the real elitist now? Both Obama and McCain are far wealthy than you or I.

But one of them can't keep track of how many homes he owns.

And that's John McCain. The real elitist.

McCain tried to save himself from the comment he made about people who make $5 million a year as rich.

McCain had this to say.

“I define rich in other ways besides income,” he said. “Some people are wealthy and rich in their lives and their children and their ability to educate them. Others are poor if they’re billionaires.”

So what are you going to do John? Send out the Hallmark Team to judge each family and how "rich" they are in their lives? I'm sure that is going to save Middle America the money they need in tax dollars.

That's how I see it.

Times Leader Voter Panel

In the Sunday paper the Times Leader had a piece about local people becoming a part of the Time Leader's Voter Panel. The Panel would discuss issues important during the election and the election itself. I applied and I'm a part of that panel.

So I'll be in the Times Leader along with about ten other individuals I believe as their Voter Panel.

How Rich is Rich for John McCain?

How about 5 million dollars?

During the forum at Saddleback Church, McCain was asked, "Where do you move from middle class to rich?"

McCain quipped "If you're just talking about income, how about five million?"

The DNC has jumped on this line and issued a great ad attacking him for being out of touch with the average American.

"The video points out that only 1 in 1,000 Americans make $5 million or more a year. Democrats say that McCain's plan to make President Bush's tax cuts permanent would give his own family a tax cut of $370,000, while giving the average middle class family only $319 in savings."

How many multi-millionaires do you know? McCain favoring the rich is no surprise here. So who is the elite one now? I seem to think that the man who favors such large tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans and the one who doesn't sympathize with middle and lower America as the out of touch elitist.

And that man is John McCain.

A Blog From the Convention

Rita Boyle, the sole Obama delegate to the Democratic National Convention, has set up a blog to keep us all informed of her time in Denver.

It was back in January that I met Rita and the other early Obama volunteers. It has been quite an experience for us all being involved in the political process like we were.

I encourage everyone to take a look at Rita's blog. It will be great to have someone locally connected providing us with insight straight from the Democratic National Convention.

Good luck Rita!

Rita's Blog